Background

Climate change will modify forest dynamics and direct (precipitation, temperature) and indirect (disturbance) effects, which will affect production and other ecosystem services such as carbon storage and biodiversity conservation ( Lindner et al., 2014 ). In some areas, modeling and predicting high losses of ecosystem services ( Elkin et al., 2013 ), especially for provisioning and regulating services (eg Mina et al., 2017 ).
Disturbances are key factors as they could intensify in the future. For example, Seidl et al. (2017) found increases in the frequency of drought and windstorm events as well as the effects of climate change. Such disturbances can be moderated by the effects of climate change on critical ecosystem functions (see Reyer et al., 2017 ).
Fostering resilience has become a key target for forest adaptation ( Puettman et al., 2009 ) and must be thought of as a prerequisite for developing the forest bioeconomy ( Winkel 2017 ). Forest resilience will become important as societies will increase the use of forest resources. This can play a major role in limiting forest degradation and associated ecosystem services.
We believe that management strategies that foster structural strength hold strong potentials for developing resilient forests, which warrants and cross-depth analyzes.

Objectives

The project has the following objectives:

  1. Improve knowledge about resistance to disturbances and recovery processes in forest ecosystems
  2. Update a disturbance database to produce forest disturbance scenarios over Europe
  3. Analyse the impacts of disturbances, management and climate change scenarios on ecosystem services with forest models at different scales
  4. Assess the effect of structural complexity on ecosystem services and the value of complexity-based management strategies
  5. Provide recommendations for enhancing forest resilience through adaptive management strategies

Model scale

  • Stand (a few hectares)
  • Landscape (a few thousand hectares; 3 landscapes)
  • Country (Slovenia, France, Germany and Poland)
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